10 Inside BUSINESS Thursday, April 12 2018 | NEW ERA Picking up the Pieces: What’s Next for Zimbabwe’s Economy? Dustin Homer* is gone.” At the end of “Bob November 2017, under intense pressure, Robert Mugabe stepped down as president of Zimbabwe – a position the controversial leader had held for 30 years. Global response to the news was cautiously optimistic. Even within the country, celebration was muted. With the transition underway, what will it take to make things better in Zimbabwe? Can the fragile economy of a country once known as the “Bread Basket of Africa” now be revived as one of the continent’s contemporary greats? And how should international investors approach opportunities in Zimbabwe? There are no simple answers or guaranteed outcomes. And good information on Zimbabwe is hard to come by. But sophisticated data analysis—like the work done by Fraym—can be used to illustrate promising opportunities for commercial ventures and social development. Both have the power to measurably improve the lives of Zimbabweans. There’s no question that the Zimbabwean economy was decimated during Mugabe’s regime. Record-breaking hy- ment (only 53% of workingage adults are employed), periodic fuel and food shortages, crippling public debt – last year – and, most recently, a chronic lack of cash, have the early 2000s. remains abundant in natural resources. In 2017, meanwhile, Harare ranked 51st of Africa’s major urban centres. Zimbabwe’s other major urban areas, Bulawayo and Chitungwiza, ranked 121 and 149 respectively on the populous urban areas across the continent according to three vectors: economic activity, consumer behaviour and a multi-tiered approach, this MARKET OVERVIEW type of geospatial data analysis provides a more nuanced, accurate and emotionally detached picture for investors—who are so often geographically removed from the markets they’re investigating. It’s not just about recognizing commercial market Dustin Homer ence techniques can also be used to guide Zimbabwe’s social development efforts. For example, the proportion of adults with post-secondary education in the country has doubled over the past decade (currently 17%). How can this Money Market Change Latest Selected NSX Stock 3 months 0.00% 6.90% Symbol Stock Name Spot % Move 6 months 0.01% 7.41% CGP CAPRICORN INVESTMENT GROUP L 1784 0.00% 9 months 0.01% 7.53% NBS NAMIBIA BREWERIES LTD 4500 0.00% 12 months 0.02% 7.82% BVN BIDVEST NAMIBIA LTD 780 0.00% Bonds Change Latest FNB FNB NAMIBIA HOLDINGS LTD 4639 0.00% GC18 (R204 : 6.82%) 0.03% 7.73% ORY ORYX PROPERTIES LTD 2039 0.00% GC21 (R208 : 7.19%) 0.02% 8.01% NAM NAMIBIAN ASSET MANAGEMENT LT 67 0.00% GC24 (R186 : 8.11%) 0.02% 9.33% NHL NICTUS NAMIBIA 180 0.00% GC27 (R186 : 8.11%) 0.02% 9.72% BMN BANNERMAN RESOURCES LTD 36 -5.26% GC30 (R2030 : 8.5%) 0.02% 10.17% DYL DEEP YELLOW LTD 233 0.43% GC32 (R213 : 8.57%) 0.02% 10.28% SILP STIMULUS INVESTMENT LTD-PREF 12129 0.00% GC35 (R209 : 8.87%) 0.01% 10.30% FSY FORSYS METALS CORP 105 6.06% GC37 (R2033 : 8.68%) 0.02% 10.68% TUC TRUSTCO GROUP HOLDINGS LTD 860 0.00% Commodities %Change Latest B2G B2GOLD CORP 3319 2.03% Gold 0.67% $ 1,348.68 Platinum 0.36% $ 933.19 Copper 0.00% $ 6,945.00 Brent Crude 1.11% $ 71.80 Main Indices %Change Latest NSX (Delayed) 0.02% 1374.83 JSE All Share -0.90% 56,239.33 SP500 1.67% 2,656.87 FTSE 100 -0.16% 7,254.83 Hangseng 0.55% 30,897.71 DAX -0.96% 12,278.48 JSE Sectors %Change Latest Financials -1.50% 17,329.47 Resources 0.20% 35,880.55 Industrials -1.14% 73,266.23 Forex %Change Latest N$/US dollar 0.47% 12.0928 N$/Pound 0.39% 17.1286 N$/Euro 0.61% 14.9635 US dollar/ Euro 0.15% 1.2374 Namibia Monthly Data Latest Previous Namibia Inflation (Feb 18) 3.5 3.6 Bank Prime 10.50 10.50 BoN Repo Rate 6.75 6.75 11-Apr-18 human resources. In a place like Zimbabwe, many people in poverty-affected communities are hard to reach and dif- Geospatial data analysis tackles that challenge, turning to a combination of satellite imagery, pre-existing data sets and sophisticated algorithms to paint a more precise population picture of these inaccessible areas. Fraym has constructed models that allow us to understand issues and dynamics such as employment, literacy, child nutrition and mortality, infrastructure and even attitudes to domestic violence. of rural Zimbabwean children stop attending school after or during primary school. We brought together data like this to pinpoint the most vulnerable communities in Zimbabwe. These spotlighted areas, unsurprisingly far away from urban centres, can then be targeted to rectify inequalities in resource access, and encourage economic revival. The tion strategy to catalyse activities by companies, governments, and NGOs in the poorest and most vulnerable communities across the continent. even in uncertain periods, opportunity exists. For example, the cash shortages of the past few years resulted in a wholesale embrace of digital banking, largely out of necessity. Mobile phone ownership is high in both urban and rural Zimbabwe: 85% of rural Zimbabweans have access to mobile phones in their households, and that rate is as high as 98% in urban Zimbabwe. As already mentioned in another piece, the Ecocash mobile-enabled funds transfer service has become a staple of daily life in Zimbabwe, to the extent that electronic money now accounts for 70% digital banking services, like Mukuru, have also emerged to cater for the Zimbabwean diaspora sending remittances back home. Looking at these examples, digital tools are already available for decisionmakers in Zimbabwe. Accessed and used optimally, these tools – and the many other technology-driven solutions yet to be explored – can enable economic revival and accelerate social development in a nation with much potential. Fraym is a venture-backed geospatial data analytics company focused exclusively on the African continent. Their platform is the only source of hyperlocal, population-centred data in Africa. consumers’ economic and social indicators, Fraym is revolutionising decisionmaking across the continent. From their Nigeria, they work with investors, companies, foundations, agencies, and ously unanswerable questions that have, until now, hindered business growth on the continent. Fraym’s proprietary platform produces over 2000 unique indicators across nearly 200 African cities, to provide customers with unparalleled insight into some of the world’s fastestgrowing markets. *Dustin Homer is the Director of Client Solutions at Fraym.
Thursday, April 12 2018 | NEW ERA 11 NEW ERA Inside BUSINESS 13 A billboard near BMW Group South Africa’s Rosslyn plant proudly announcing the local production of the X3. Photo: BMW SA BMW Group SA starts production of the new BMW X3 State-of-the-art manufacturing plant has a maximum annual capacity of 76 000 units. R6.1bn investment bears fruit off the line. BMW Group’s commitment to South Africa and its people continues after 45 years of operation in the country. More than 45 000 people di- from BMW Group South Africa’s operations in the country. Staff Reporter A new chapter in southern Africa’s automotive story began this week as BMW Group South Africa started production of the new BMW X3 at its Rosslyn plant. With customer vehicles now rolling off the line, BMW Group once again demonstrates its commitment to its operations in South and Southern Africa. In 2015, BMW Group announced a N billion investment into South Africa in order to prepare the BMW Group Plant Rosslyn for the BMW X3 production. This week, is the culmination of three years of hard work and planning resulting in production starting on time in Rosslyn. Ensuring production follows demand The BMW Group assigns production to its facilities around the world on the basis of various factors. Demand for BMW’s X-derivative models has grown to more than Staff members gathered at BMW Group South Africa’s Rosslyn plant as production commenced this week of the new BMW X3. Photo: BMW SA 30% of worldwide sales since the 1999. BMW Group Plant Rosslyn was assigned production of the new BMW X3 on the basis that demand exceeds the capacity of the Group’s plant in Spartanburg, South Carolina. This change has secured the future of Plant Rosslyn as well as the livelihoods of thousands of people at facilities and in the supply chain. BWM Group Plant Rosslyn was Group outside of Germany. The plant built the BMW 3 Series for 35 years, manufacturing a total of 1,191,604 units during the period, and increasing production with every model. With a planned maximum capacity of 71 000 units of the BMW X3, which was later increased (with an additional R160m investment) to 76 000, BMW Group Plant Rosslyn has volumes to demand, and to build more cars than ever before. Tim Abbott, CEO of BMW Group South Africa and Sub- Saharan Africa, says the successful ramp-up of production of the BMW dence in the country and in BMW Group South Africa’s associates. “The allocation of production of such a crucial model to our plant is as it gets,” Abbott says. “The demand for the BMW X3 globally is powerful and ramping up on time and to the right standards is vital to the model’s success.” associates and plant management at Rosslyn. This is the team that won the coveted JD Power Platinum award in 2015, showing that a South African plant can lead the world in terms of quality,” Abbott says. A critical time for BMW Group South Africa BMW Group’s investments in South Africa are made in terms of the Automotive Production and Development Plan (APDP), which expires in 2020. Discussions about a replacement plan have been fruitful and are ongoing and are crucial for the long-term outlook as well as the stability of the automotive sector and BMW Group South Africa’s commitment to the country. BMW Group South Africa is proud of its progress in terms of localising production of as many components as possible for the BMW X3, which makes this model the most “local” vehicle it has ever built. Equally, BMW Group is a leading participant in a proposed venture fund to develop more black-owned suppliers in the South African automotive supply chain. BMW’s contribution to ramping up automotive exports, large-scale jobs as well as other factors make up the content of discussions with the government, labour partners and component suppliers. The BMW X3 was the car that launched the mid-size SAV (Sports Activity Vehicle) segment in 2003. Since then, BMW has recorded more than 1.5 million new registrations of the X3 across the two model generations so far. Since the global launch in the last quarter of 2017, the new BMW X3 is set to write the next chapter in this success story with an even more striking, dynamic design cient drive systems and luxurious appointments. Like all members of the successful X family, it blends standout driving qualities on any terrain with unrestricted everyday usability.